Heat waves to more than double in frequency from Oshawa to Pickering: report

The Durham Region Health Department has released a new study on the impacts of climate change and extreme heat.

The study found temperatures will continue to climb across the Region, which will experience an additional six weeks’ worth of days with “tropical” temperatures by the end of the century.

Epidemiologist Alexandra Swirski and Senior Environmental Health Specialist Tara Zupancic developed the lengthy report which examines the numerous local impacts of climate change over the next few decades.

The pair were aided by engagement with the Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation. The authors noted the Nation’s help “identified important gaps in our climate change and health vulnerability assessments, including a holistic approach to Indigenous health, and made recommendations for strengthening the reports.”

The resulting heat report is the first of several which will examine various impacts of climate change including wildfires and flooding.

“Significant action is required to both mitigate and adapt to climate change to protect the livability of our planet and the places we call home,” the authors wrote.

The pair found “Extreme heat events are the deadliest weather-related events in Canada, but they do not affect everyone equally.” The differences are driven largely by three major factors: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

The report indicates the most vulnerable groups include:

• older adults 60 years of age and up,
• infants and young children,
• pregnant individuals;
• Indigenous peoples;
• people with chronic health conditions (e.g., chronic illnesses, disabilities, obesity, cognitive and mental health challenges and substance use challenges);
• socially and materially disadvantaged people;
• newcomers and transient populations such as tourists; and
• people who work or are physically active outdoors.

Extreme heat related illness heavily taxes the local healthcare facilities and first responders during the summer months. However, even these cases don’t show the full impact. Heat-related illness are widely under-reported particularly among older people.

These cases are only expected to become more common in coming decades as heat waves are projected to more than double between 2050 and 2080.

These will be most common in the Region’s northern reaches of Brock, Scugog and Uxbridge than in the southern municipalities.

However, the southern cities as denser urban areas will experience more intense “urban heat islands” in which the city is hotter than surrounding rural areas.

This is found to be particularly pronounced effect in Durham’s seven Priority Neighbourhoods:

• Downtown Ajax – Ajax
• Downtown Whitby – Whitby
• Downtown Oshawa – Oshawa
• Lakeview – Oshawa
• Gibb West – Oshawa
• Central Park – Oshawa
• Beatrice North – Oshawa

As the effects of climate change intensify, it is essential to prioritize equity and ensure that all people living in Durham Region have the ability to avoid harmful heat,” said Durham Region Medical Officer of Health Dr. Robert Kyle.

“We know it is possible to prevent heat-related illness and death in Durham Region by reducing heat exposure, prioritizing people most sensitive to serious health impacts and supporting residents’ ability to protect themselves and others,” Kyle continues.

“Extreme heat has been, and will continue to be, the deadliest weather-related hazard in Canada. Exposure to extreme heat is not experienced equally across Durham’s diverse and unique neighbourhoods,” said Ajax’s Supervisor of Environmental Sustainability Cameron Richardson.

Swirski and Zupancic included a list of recommendations for the Region to adapt to the changing climate including:

• A better understanding of heat-related health burdens in Durham Region.
• Improved local knowledge of households without cooling systems and their heat-coping barriers and needs.
• Increased community awareness about who is at risk and which protective actions to take.
• Methods for identifying and reaching isolated individuals during extreme heat events.
• Improved local data and understanding of Durham Region residents living with disabilities.
• Improved understanding of the distribution, accessibility and use of cooling centres.
• Identification of high-need community spaces in need of shade, green space and/or water features.
• Strategic urban planning to maintain and restore forested ecosystems, wetlands and grasslands.

The full 96-page report is available online.