Whitby and Oshawa see tight races as Liberals and Conservatives projected to split Durham ridings


Published September 20, 2021 at 7:26 pm

A voter casts their ballot in the advance polls, Friday, September 10, 2021 in Chambly, Que. Canadians will vote in a federal election Sept. 20th. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz

With only hours to go until election polls close, the Liberal and Conservative parties may split Durham ridings right down the middle.

Polling aggregate firm 338Canada projects these parties will each claim three ridings out of the six in Durham Region.

Whitby is the closest race in the Region, per 338. Their polling data estimates support for Liberal incumbent Ryan Turnbull around 38 per cent. Conservative candidate, Maleeha Shahid, is hot on Turnbull’s heels at about 37 per cent. As such the race is too close to project; margins of error in each candidate’s support is about 8 per cent.

It’s possible Whitby won’t have a declared winner for  several days because of the high number of mail in ballots this election.

Meanwhile, Oshawa’s race has tightened in recent weeks. While the riding was once seen as a safe seat for 17-year incumbent Colin Carrie, it is now seen as leaning Conservative with 80/20 odds.

This comes after a significant surge in support for NDP candidate Shailene Panylo, and controversy surrounding Liberal Afroza Hossain.

Hossain found herself in hot water after the local debate was cancelled due to her withdrawal, and revelations she demanded appearance fees.

Northumberland-Peterborough South, which contains the eastern half of Clarington, is leaning toward Conservative incumbent Philip Lawrence at an estimated 40 per cent support. Liberal candidate Alison Lester is estimated to have 32 per cent support.

338 data projects Liberals Mark Holland and Jennifer O’Connell as safe in their respective ridings of Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge.

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole’s riding of Durham is also a safe seat, projects 338.

A candidate must have a 99 percent chance of victory for 338 to consider a riding safe. Ridings have a 5 to 10 per cent margin of error.

InSauga is providing live election results.

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